It’s Not Over. Not yet.

The television pundits are really spinning Trump’s victory in the NE.  We all knew Ted Cruz would not perform well within the NE.  The Republicans within the NE are of a different ilk than the rest of the party.  Another point needs to be made.  In New York, there is the “Conservative Party.”  New York had a closed primary.  Conservatives in New York were not able to vote in the Republican primary.

Just because a candidate has a plurality of the vote – it does not mean the candidate’s path should be both unimpeded and unopposed.  The rule for this Republican nomination process is that you must EARN 1237 delegates.  If you don’t reach 1237, which is a majority, then the delegates will decide who is the nominee at the convention.  Exit polling data recently showed that 40% of Republicans would never support Trump.  Over 25% of Republicans are afraid of him.  A nationwide poll indicates that 1/3 of Republicans will not support Trump under any circumstance.  Mitt Romney had the support of over 93% of the Republican Party.  Every single reliable poll shows that Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton in a general election.  Every – single – one.

Trump is polling worse than Romney did against Obama in 2012.  No, Trump is not performing better than Reagan.

Here are the latest general election numbers (internal breakdown and analysis) for Donald Trump:

8% of “Democrats” view Trump “favorably.”

67% of “Independents” view Trump “unfavorably.”

69% of “Women” view Trump “unfavorably.”

74% of “College Graduates” view Trump “unfavorably.”

75% of “Millennials” view Trump “unfavorably.”

79% of “Hispanics” view Trump “unfavorably.”

88% of “African-Americans” view Trump “unfavorably.”

Overall, 65% of the U.S. public view Trump “unfavorably.”

Donald Trump’s “Name Identification” is at 100%.  This means that Trump’s base has little to no room for growth.

Those numbers will not improve once PACs from the Democratic Party begin releasing specially crafted ads dealing with Trump’s past bribery investigation(s), the fact that the Justice Department sued and fined Trump for racial discrimination on multiple occasions, Trump’s involvement with organized crime (for instance his closest advisor Felix Sater pleaded guilty to a racketeering scheme involving the Genovese and Bonanno crime families.), and Trump purchased property from Salvatore Testa at double its cost.  The reason Trump is being audited is because of the later.  The fraudulent “Trump University” is also not going to go away.  There is much more about Trump that is scheduled to be released.

Then there is Trump’s business acumen.  Trump has a history of disastrous business decisions.  Before Celebrity Apprentice, Trump was in enormous debt.  Why?  Because many of the businesses that Trump launched went under.  In the documentary, “Born Rich,” Ivanka Trump even stated that she remembered her father pointing to a homeless person and saying that the homeless person was eight billion dollars richer than himself.  Trump currently makes his living by licensing his name based off his Celebrity Apprentice fame.  Even with licensing his name, Trump has been plagued with problems.

Trump’s racially charged past, just by itself, would increase the Democratic Party’s turnout during a general election.  Then all of the other scandals would increase the turnout substantially more.  Benghazi and the private server emails will seem trivial and will become a distant memory.  Bernie Sanders will rally his supporters to get behind Hillary Clinton.  Sanders may even get the VP nod from Hillary.  The other two individuals that Hillary will consider as VP will be Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro.  So, even if by some fluke she is indicted, there will be another viable candidate ready.

As an “Independent,” I will be unmotivated to vote in the general election if Donald Trump is the nominee.  Trump supports tariffs.  Protectionism has always been traditionally associated with the Democratic Party.  This disastrous policy extended the effects of the Great Depression.  But, Trump wants to go even further with mercantile policies which would be devastating.  Trump believes in Keynesian economics and he supported the TARP bailout.  Trump supports the nationalization of banks and is okay with a “bail-in.”  What is a “bail-in?”  It means if a bank is on the brink of failure it is allowed to absorb its customers’ account holdings in order to remain solvent.  Trump supports the Obamacare mandate and believes in “single payer.”  Trump has waffled on so many issues including gender neutral bathrooms and abortion.  Donald Trump is not a Conservative and he’s definitely not trustworthy.

Ted Cruz should be the nominee.  Cruz is a Reagan style Conservative Libertarian. He believes in states’ rights and his economic philosophy is in line with the likes of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Henry Hazlitt, and Milton Friedman.  Cruz has one of the highest “Conservative” ratings among the various Conservative institutions.  Both Heritage and the American Conservative Union gave him a 100% rating.  The Conservative Review gave Cruz a 97% rating.  Your record matters.  Cruz’s record is exemplary.  Someone once said, “Trust, but verify.”  More than ever that motto is relevant today within this political process.  Cruz checks out.  Donald Trump does not.


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